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Daily Intelligence Briefing - October 19, 2017
FEATURED TOPIC: MRP is Recalibrating Our Long Gaming Theme to Focus on Video Games
Last year, Pokémon GO, a GPS-based, augmented reality mobile game became a cultural phenomenon unlike any game before it, becoming the fastest mobile game to reach $1 billion in revenue, taking only six months to do so. The hype did have precedent though. Other popular mobile games like Candy Crush and Angry Birds have inspired a TV show and a feature-length film respectively. Mobile games have carved out their own space, breaking from hardware-based platforms like console (Xbox, PlayStation, Nintendo) and PC. Mobile game downloads from the App Store and Google Play totaled approximately 9.2 billion worldwide in Q2 2017. This represents a 19 percent year-over-year increase from 7.7 billion in Q2 2016. What makes the mobile game industry so competitive is the low barrier for new entrants over PCs and consoles. Mobile games can be developed in lesser time and cost, whereas it takes years to develop games for PCs and consoles and it involves a huge investment of millions of dollars. Similar to the way that mobile devices they’re played on broke away from the landline telephone, games is breaking away from the wires at a rapid pace.
Today, 42% of video game industry revenue comes from mobile games on smartphones and tablets. This advance has largely been driven by in-game spending, where mobile games dominate. In game-spending alone could approach 50% of industry revenue by 2019. In that same year, the number of total mobile gamers could swell to 209.5 million worldwide. While most mobile games begin as free to play, they can become extremely addictive. Small fees to add premium features such as exclusive expansions, powerups, and other modifications to the vanilla version of the game add up when multiplied across an audience of millions.
In-game advertising is also much more advantageous for mobile games since they are application-based and completely downloaded or streamed, unlike disc-based console titles. While console and PC games are moving toward being downloadable as well, it is still unusual to see very much advertisement aside from product placement in traditional video games. Applications can be constantly updated to reflect new and varying advertisers. Mobile games are on track to generate $39.8 billion in ad revenue this year, up nearly 90% from $21.1 billion in 2015. And this figure is projected to reach $49 billion next year. Game developers have even begun rewarding users for viewing ads to help them further monetize existing users not making in game purchases.
Audience growth can largely be attributed to the proliferation of smartphones across the developing world, but especially in Asia. Chinese video game giant Tencent Holdings Ltd has taken the top spot in the ranking of Newzoo's Top 25 Companies by Game Revenues list, generating $7.4 billion in the first half of this year, a 50 percent increase over the same period last year. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) mobile game market already dwarfs the rest of the world at a total valuation of $27.5 billion, almost 33% larger than the rest of the world combined, while only 32.5% of the APAC population have yet to own a smartphone. While most are probably well-aware of Japan and China’s infatuation with video game culture, the strongest growth is actually coming out of Southeast Asia, a region where mobile game revenues are growing at a CAGR of 45.3% between 2015 and 2019, well above the global average of 14.6%.
Going forward, mobile games will continue to become more advanced and integrated with Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality tech. While consoles and PCs will also work to integrate this technology, they haven’t been nearly as successful. AR has undoubtedly outpaced VR in popularity as integration is much simpler. This is especially true for smartphones and tablets with built in cameras. TechCrunch believes that mobile AR could become the primary driver of a $108 billion VR/AR market by 2021, and now, thanks to the arrival of Apple ARKit and Google ARCore, which allow developers to create AR projects right on their current smart devices, AR will soon be available to millions of people worldwide without necessarily requiring a new hardware investment.
It is no secret that people are constantly using their smartphones to avoid even a moment of boredom and games have become an omnipresent time-consumer in planes, trains and cars. In 2016, mobile games ranked second, only behind social media activity, in hours spent on devices. The time consumers spent playing games was equivalent to 1.15 billion hours per month.
THEME UPDATE: NARROWING THE FOCUS OF OUR LONG GAMING THEME
MRP initiated a long recommendation on the Gaming Industry on April 17. At the time, we wrote:
“The gaming industry seems to have the wind at its back. As the global economy continues to mend, consumers will have more discretionary income to spend on leisure activities like gaming. The easing of regulation in some large markets will also draw more customers into gaming. Removal of Brazil's gambling ban, for example, could be a game changer for the industry, making Brazil the largest regulated gambling jurisdiction. Moreover, technology has helped the industry remain relevant to a younger generation.”
We made particular note of the fact that “the future of the industry is increasing being reshaped by three trends: mobile gaming, e-sports, and virtual reality”, and we provided some insight into each of these three areas. Then on May 30, we published a special report on e-sports, highlighting six industry groups that will benefit as that segment of gaming goes mainstream. Today’s report highlights how rapidly the mobile gaming segment is growing.
Our original Long Gaming recommendation combined the gambling and video gaming sides of the industry, and we have been monitoring the theme through the VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF (BJK). Today, however, we are recalibrating the theme and shifting its focus entirely to the video gaming side (i.e. mobile games, e-sports, and VR/AR), where we believe transformational change is unfolding. Given this narrower focus, MRP will be tracking the theme via the ETFMG Video Game Tech ETF (GAMR) rather than BJK.
HERE in the meantime are the latest articles on gaming (the stories are summarized in the TECHNOLOGY Section):
CHART:Video Games (GAMR) vs Gaming (BJK) vs S&P 500 (SPY)
THEME CLOSURE: MRP is removing Long Cybersecurity from our list of active themes.
When we made the recommendation on January 18, our thesis was pretty straightforward: As the world continues to build web infrastructure (especially for data storage, retrieval, and processing) and the internet airwaves buzz with ever increasing peer-to-peer communication, the number of exploitable vulnerabilities rises. As noted in our follow up May 9 DIBs report, ransomware is now available for sale on the dark web, and can even be deployed with one click in some cases. The ease of access and deployment raises concerns that these types of attacks will become more prevalent and damaging.
The theme, as expressed by the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK), is up 8% since we made the recommendation -- performance that we consider lackluster. Given the numerous high profile cyber-attacks that have hit organizations worldwide this year, we believe awareness of the thematic opportunity is well publicized and already priced in. As a result, we are closing the recommendation.
OTHER STORIES HIGHLIGHTED IN TODAY'S DIBS:
JOE MAC'S MARKET VIEWPOINT
CURRENT MRP THEMES
| CAPEX & Infrastructure (L) | France (L) | Defense (L) |
| Emerging Markets (L) | India (L) | Video Gaming (L) |
| Gold (L) | Homebuilders (L) | US Healthcare Providers (L) |
| Oil, Oil Services, US Energy (L) | Autos (S) | Steel (L) |
| TIPS (L)/ Long-Dated UST (S) | Lithium (L) | Robotics & Automation (L) |
| U.S. Financials, Regional Banks (L) | Palladium (L) | Value over Growth (L) |
About the DIBs: MRP focuses on identifying transformational change in the global economy and offering an investment thesis whenever an opportunity arises that has not yet been recognized by the market. The DIBs are MRP's compilation of articles and data from multiple sources on subjects reflecting disruptive change that have potential investment implications for an industry or group of securities. We share these with our clients who may already have or may be considering exposure in the industries affected. The subjects change daily and constitute an excellent update on featured topics.
| MAJOR DATA POINTS | Top |
| MARKETS | Top |
Stocks - Argentina’s Stock Market May Be Getting an Overdue Face-Lift
Investors will soon have the chance to buy into a premium segment for companies that voluntarily adhere to a set of higher governance guidelines. The Argentine stock exchange is planning to create a segment modeled on Brazil’s "Novo Mercado" in the first half of 2018. It will have greater standards for disclosure and corporate governance to protect retail investors, increase liquidity and attract institutional money, Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos president Ernesto Allaria said in an interview.
The inclusion of shares in an upgraded market division may help to bolster value for those companies willing to up the ante, akin to what Brazilian companies go through when they look to the Novo Mercado, he said. B
Cryptocurrency - Smart Regulation Could Make Russia Next Major Bitcoin Market
Russia could evolve into the next major Bitcoin market, as the government continues to encourage Bitcoin mining and moves closer towards regulating its cryptocurrency exchange market. Earlier this week, Cointelegraph revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the launch of CryptoRuble, a cryptographically-secured state-issued national digital currency. Several analysts have speculated that the launch of CryptoRuble would likely lead to a nationwide ban on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. CoinTelegraph
| ECONOMICS AND TRADE | Top |
China -China looks to transition from high-speed to high-quality growth
Chinese President Xi Jiping has pledged further liberalization of the world's second-biggest economy, making China more open to foreign investors. "China's open door will not be closed, it will be only be opened wider,"Xi said, speaking at the opening of the once every five years Communist Party Congress on Wednesday. However, China remains a relatively closed market for foreigners, who own under two percent of equities and bonds, said Ben Luk, State Street Global Markets' global macro strategist. While the Chinese president pledged support for smaller private businesses, he also urged for bigger and stronger state-owned companies. RT
| POLITICS & FISCAL POLICY | Top |
Alcohol - France considers massive tax hike on hard liquor
The price of cognac and calvados could increase significantly in France as the government plans a tax increase on strong alcoholic drinks. The measure will be part of a crackdown on beverages that negatively affect health. The proposal is part of the government's new social security budget, which is expected to be presented on Wednesday. According to French daily Les Echos, the tax increase would affect brandy, gin, rum, tequila, vodka, and whiskeys, as well as other spirits, containing more than 15 percent alcohol. RT
ACA - Trump Today: President says he’ll ‘never support’ bailout of insurance companies
President Donald Trump said Wednesday he won’t support “bailing out” insurance companies, in a bad sign for a bipartisan deal to shore up Obamacare. A day after he made supportive comments about the Obamacare deal between Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray, Trump said on Twitter he’d “never support bailing out [insurance companies] who have made a fortune” with Obamacare. The agreement between Tennessee Republican Alexander and Washington Democrat Murray would, among other things, preserve billions of dollars in payments made to insurers to help offset consumers’ out-of-pocket costs.
Trump didn’t say he’d veto a deal if it reaches his desk, and left room for more discussion, saying he’s supportive of “the process” and of Alexander personally. NPR reportedthat a draft of the bill would ensure that the subsidies benefit consumers, instead of boosting companies’ profits. MW
| MONETARY POLICY | Top |
EU - ECB set for longer, slower taper to keep a lid on euro
The European Central Bank looks set to remain active in the eurozone bond markets for most of 2018, confounding expectations that policymakers would end their landmark €60bn-a-month quantitative easing programme as early as June next year. ECB watchers now expect Mario Draghi, its president, to say at the next governing council meeting on October 26 that the central bank will continue its asset purchases until next September — or possibly even December 2018.
The trade-off is that, in exchange for staying in the market for longer, the eurozone’s central bankers will, from January, buy fewer bonds each month. The figure could fall from the current level of €60bn to as low as €20bn, should the ECB’s governing council extend QE until December 2018. So what are the advantages of buying fewer bonds each month but remaining active in markets for longer?
1. Stronger rate guidance - The prime motive for a slower taper is that it would push back expectations of an interest rate rise in the eurozone into 2019. That, in turn, should remove one of the big stumbling blocks to an exit from QE — the strength of the single currency.
2. Address Scarcity - A chronic problem with eurozone QE is that markets have long suspected that the ECB could run out of assets to buy given that the legal limits on what government bonds it can purchase are much stricter than for other central banks. Those limitations become looser the longer the programme goes on for and the slower the pace of purchases, with more debt becoming available to buy over time as German authorities issue more debt. FT
| REAL ESTATE | Top |
Rebuilding - What construction companies should know about post-disaster FEMA contracting
So far this summer, the United States has seen what many would consider to be more than its fair share of natural disasters. Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Houston on August 25 causing an estimated $198 billion in property damage. Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Irma made its way through Florida and into the Southeast, leaving a up to $100 billion in damage in its wake.
While damage from those storms has been extensive, the nation's natural disasters and the damage caused by them has not been confined to the South. The fires, still ongoing, are expected to result in at least $65 billion in damages, CNN Money reported.
Insurers estimate that claims for this year’s hurricane season alone will reach $100 billion, and contractors are sure to be kept busy with rebuilding work for the months and years following these events. Many construction companies, however, will explore opportunities with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and seek to enter into contracts with the agency for work that insurance doesn't cover — a strategy, the organization said, would be ill-advised. CDive
| SERVICES | Top |
MiFID - More Than Half the EU Is Still Racing to Comply With MiFID Rules
More than half of the European Union’s 28 countries are still scrambling to put MiFID II financial-market rules on their books, adding to industry confusion as firms race to comply with the new requirements before the Jan. 3 start date. In seventeen countries, including Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal, policy makers are still working to convert the revised Markets in Financial Instruments Directive into national law or regulations, according to the European Commission and reporting by Bloomberg. That matters because until it’s on a country’s books, the directive doesn’t directly apply to companies or individuals there.
This last-minute dash adds to the uncertainty for banks and money managers as they brace for an estimated $2 billion bill to comply with MiFID II, a sweeping rewrite of trading rules affecting stocks, bonds, derivatives and commodities. It also puts pressure on regulators across the EU to show lenience as the law comes into force.
While EU directives are binding as to the result to be achieved, national authorities have some discretion in how they achieve that result. In practice, that means the rules will look a little different in each EU country. B
E-commerce - Russia to tap 10% of global online trade market by 2025
Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry has prepared a draft online trade development strategy until 2025, which implies that the country’s share on the global online trade market will top 10% by 2025, the ministry reported Wednesday. Russia’s exports via online trade channels will rise by at least 5%, the report said. According to the ministry, e-commerce will account for 20% of the country’s total trade, and at least 70% of retail stores will be using internet channels in sales by 2025. TASS
| TECH | Top |
Video Games - Chinese gaming revenues surge on mobile growth
Driven by the booming mobile internet sector, top Chinese gaming companies saw significant growth in game revenues during the first half of 2017, according to gaming industry consultancy Newzoo's latest global games market report.
Newzoo said the popularity of Tencent's mobile game King of Glory, which attained 200 million players in China alone, has made big bucks for Shenzhen-based Tencent this year. Chinese gaming industry database Gamma Data Corp estimated that King of Glory raked in around 6 billion yuan ($911 million) in the second quarter in the domestic market, and its transactions would hit more than 22 billion yuan for the full year.
Chinese leading gaming outfit NetEase Inc continued to rank as seventh on the list, recording a staggering 53 percent year-on-year increase in revenues to hit $2.9 billion in the first half of 2017. Due to the good performance in particularly PC and mobile gaming sectors, Chinese movie and gaming company Perfect World Co Ltd has made its first appearance on the list at 20th place, earning $442 million in game revenues in the first half this year with a 90 percent year-on-year growth. CD
Video Games - Activision 'Destiny 2' physical game sales fell more than 50% versus original in first month
U.S. physical game sales of Activision Blizzard's "Destiny 2", declined more than 50 percent in the month of September versus the release of "Destiny" (which was the largest new console video game franchise launch in history) in its first month, according to NPD sell-through data sourced by three Wall Street analyst reports.
The company's CEO Bobby Kotick said on a Feb. 2016 earnings call that "for games like Destiny, it had, in the high-20%s in terms of digital downloads" versus total sales. In Feb. 2017, Activision executive Dennis Durkin said Destiny digital sales mix rose to a "mid-30s" percentage of its total sales, according to a FactSet transcript.
Analysts said part of the reason for the sales decline may be because it launched on two less console platforms versus the first title. In addition, some gamers may be waiting for the PC version, which launches on Oct. 24. However, the installed bases of Sony Playstation 4 and Microsoft Xbox One consoles increased significantly since 2014, counteracting the game not being released on Xbox 360 and the Playstation 3 this time. CNBC
Video Games - NBA esports investment 'a long-term play' that will be 'around for decades'
Next year, the National Basketball Association will officially enter the world of esports by way of its NBA 2K League. Managing director Brendan Donohue has now billed the association's esports involvement as "a long-term play" that he reckons will span multiple decades.
Donohue points to the fact League of Legends finals have pulled bigger audiences than the Oscars, and that awareness isn't something he or his team consider an issue. That said, Donohue also describes revenues as "a secondary goal right now", and that building scale is their current focus.
He continues: "There's a significant appetite for the game in the US, but more importantly globally. We have a free version of the game in China that has 34 million registered users. That suggests there's a global appetite for the game; in fact, I don't think people understand how big the 2K game is globally.
The NBA 2K League is set to kick off next year. PCGamer
Video Games - Japanese mobile game revenues grew 35% in the year ending June 2017
Mobile gaming revenues in Japan increased by approximately 35% year-on-year in the 12 months ending June 2017, according to a new report. Japan's mobile revenues have now surpassed the US for three years in a row despite that country having three times as many smartphone users.
Unlike most markets, revenues generated across Google Play and the Apple App Store were fairly similar, compared to a starker gap in the US where the App Store earns developers significantly more overall.
Japanese players access their games twice as much as those in the US and is the highest-ranking country in terms of average number of sessions in games per user, also spending twice as much time when they do play.
Casual titles and Role Playing Games s are said to be the most popular genre, accounting for more than 55% of downloads and more than 65% of all time spent in games. PcktGmr
Media - Future of Tech and Media: Waging a War for People’s Time
The war for tech supremacy is moving to newer technologies such as augmented reality and voice assistants, as giant internet companies grasp for an ever-fleeting portion of people’s time. That is the tech and media outlook presented Tuesday at The Wall Street Journal’s WSJ D.Live technology conference by Michael J. Wolf, co-founder and managing director of the consulting firm Activate Inc. Alphabet Inc., Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and others are hunting for new areas of growth—often on each other’s turf—as they enjoy soaring revenues and stock prices.
Up for grabs is an extra $300 billion a year in revenues that Activate projects will flow into the $1.7 trillion global consumer media and internet market by 2021, through growing internet-access fees, ads and paid content. Activate estimates the market will grow 4.1% a year. Consumers’ time, though, is already stretched, with young people in particular tethered to devices much of the day. Mr. Wolf’s outlook estimates people spend 12 hours a day on average consuming tech and media, including moments when they are multitasking. WSJ
Startups - How the Frightful Five Put Start-Ups in a Lose-Lose Situation
So if you’re worried about the power of the Frightful Five — Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook and Microsoft — just look at how IBM, Hewlett-Packard or monopoly-era Microsoft fell to earth. They were all victims of “creative destruction,” of an “innovator’s dilemma,” the theories that bolster Silicon Valley’s vision of itself as a roiling sea of pathbreaking upstarts, where the very thing that made you big also makes you vulnerable.
The technology industry is now a playground for giants. Where 10 or 20 years ago we looked to start-ups as a font of future wonders, today the energy and momentum have shifted almost completely to the big guys. In addition to the many platforms they own already, one or more of the Five are on their way to owning artificial intelligence, voice assistants, virtual and augmented reality, robotics, home automation, and every other cool and crazy thing that will rule tomorrow.
Start-ups are still getting funding and still making breakthroughs. But their victory has never been likely (fewer than 1 percent of start-ups end up as $1 billion companies), and recently their chances of breakout success — and especially of knocking the giants off their perches — have diminished considerably. NYT
| TRANSPORTATION | Top |
Drones - Drones can improve inventory accuracy, fill turnover gap
PINC Solutions CEO Matt Yearling told APICS 2017 conference attendees that if they aren't investing in drone tech, they're already behind their competitors. Some of the key benefits drones provide, he said, include improved inventory accuracy rates, greater operational efficiency and employee safety. The employee turnover rate in distribution centers is currently at 40%, so Yearling sees drones as a necessary component for companies seeking a stable supply chain and better inventory management.
The opportunities for drones are endless, including delivery, photography, surveillance, assessment and inspection, asset tracking and inventory management. But Yearling says drones are no longer a "buzzword," and supply chain professionals need to know that. SCDive
EVs - US Army doesn’t want to be left out of the electric revolution, official talks ‘all-electric brigades’
During the the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual meeting last week, Donald Sando, the Maneuver Center of Excellence’s deputy to the commanding general, which develops future requirements for individual soldiers and the maneuver force, claimed that electric vehicles will play an important role in the US Army relatively soon.
Sando referenced the Next-Gen Combat Vehicle program, which is currently spending $700 million on two prototypes made by a SAIC-led team at the Army Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center. As you would imagine, not much information is available about the project which is due in late 2022, but Sando is suggesting that the prototypes could end up being electric. Elektrek
| COMMODITIES | Top |
Oil - Oil’s Biggest Rigs Head to the Junkyard
Transocean Ltd. is finally sending Pathfinder to its grave, after two years in a Caribbean purgatory that cost about $15,000 a day. The move by the world’s biggest offshore-rig operator signals just how bleak the future looks for deepwater drilling. Pathfinder is the most famous of six floating rigs the company is scrapping in burials that will add up to a bruising $1.4 billion write-off.
Competitors are going the same route, jettisoning more rigs in the third quarter than have ever been trashed in a 90-day stretch, according to Heikkinen Energy Advisors analyst David Smith. That’s how bad it is, with predictions crude prices won’t go much higher than $60 a barrel in the next year compared with around $50 recently. B
Oil - In charts: has the US shale drilling revolution peaked?
In the outlook for crude prices, a crucial factor is how far US shale oil production can grow. The shale revolution has transformed global oil markets over the past decade, reversing the long decline in US output, challenging Opec’s influence, and helping to trigger the plunge in prices that began in 2014. It has meant windfalls for oil consumers, and some painful adjustments for producers. The leap forward that made shale oil commercially viable for the first time was a revolution in productivity.
Over the past year, however, the productivity gains seemed to have slowed considerably, suggesting that the revolutionary era for progress in shale is over. In the Eagle Ford shale, productivity — as measured by production from new wells per active rig — has been falling. Those productivity data from the Energy Information Administration are an imperfect measure, however. For a start, they do not take into account the extent to which companies are drilling wells and then deliberately not bringing them into production as they wait for higher prices.
One issue is the time it takes to drill the wells. The recorded efficiency of rigs improved dramatically over 2013-16, in part because of the spread of pad drilling: running multiple horizontal wells off from a single site, or pad, to cut down the time spent moving the rigs. Another factor is the shift from vertical to horizontal wells. A well running horizontally through a layer of oil-bearing rock is typically much more productive than a vertical one that just punches through a section of that layer.FT
| ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT | Top |
Wind - World’s first floating wind farm opens off the Scottish coast
The world’s first floating wind farm started delivering electricity to the Scottish power grid on Wednesday (18 October), and will utilise an innovative battery storage system to provide power to around 20,000 households. The 30MW Hywind wind farm, operated by Statoil in partnership with Masdar, was officially opened by the First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon this morning.
Statoil wants to lower the costs of energy from the Hywind floating wind farm to around €40-60 per MWh by 2030, which would be lower than the “unprecedented” record low-strike price of £57.50 per MWh set by offshore wind projects in the latest Contract for Difference auction. With up to 80% of potential offshore wind resource located in deep waters unsuitable for traditional bottom-fixed installations, Statoil believes that floating offshore wind will follow a similar downward cost trajectory of traditional offshore wind projects. Euractiv
| ENDNOTE | Top |
CHART: Snapchat is American teens' favorite social media app — and Facebook can't be happy about that BI
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