Week Ahead

Next week the second estimate of US Q2 GDP growth will be keenly watched, alongside personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, and pending home sales. Elsewhere, important releases include: UK Gfk consumer confidence and monetary indicators; Eurozone flash inflation, business survey and jobless rate; Germany retail trade, business and consumer morale; Japan consumer confidence, industrial output, and retail sales; China NBS PMI survey; Australia building permits and private sector credit; and Canada and India Q2 GDP growth rates.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 8/23/2019 4:51:37 PM
Next week the US will be publishing the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, with market forecasts suggesting economic growth was 2 percent, slightly weaker than initially thought. Other notable publications are personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, flash estimates of wholesale inventories and goods trade balance, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Investors will also be expecting any further developments on trade negotiations amid escalating tensions, after Beijing announced it will impose additional tariffs on US imports worth about $75 billion in response to the recent US tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

Other important releases for America include Canada Q2 GDP figures, current account, producer prices, average weekly earnings, and budget balance; Mexico trade balance, unemployment rate; and Brazil Q2 economic growth, jobless rate, current account, and bank lending. The Bank of Mexico will be publishing inflation report and monetary policy minutes, while the Central Bank of Brazil will be releasing its weekly Focus Market Readout with several projections for the country's main macroeconomic variables.

In the UK, important releases include Gfk consumer confidence, nationwide housing prices and Bank of England’s monetary indicators. Elsewhere in Europe, several countries will publish second-quarter GDP growth figures, with Germany, France and Italy releasing their final figures. Germany's economic contraction is likely to be confirmed, adding to fears that the bloc's largest economy could fall into recession due to a prolonged trade war between the US and China. In addition, the country's Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer confidence should point to a further deterioration in business and consumer morale. Other key economic data include: the Eurozone flash inflation, business survey and jobless rate; Germany unemployment data and retail sales; France and Italy industry and consumer sentiment; Switzerland KOF leading indicators; and Turkey manufacturing confidence and trade balance.

In Japan, investors will focus on consumer confidence, preliminary estimate of industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, unemployment rate and Tokyo inflation. Meanwhile in China, the NBS will provide an update on manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, with markets expecting a further contraction in factory activity. Australia will be releasing Q2 construction work done, private capital expenditure, building permits and private sector credit. The Bank of Korea will be deciding on monetary policy, but no changes are expected, after a 25 bps rate cut in the previous meeting. On the economic data front, South Korea's important releases include consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include India Q2 GDP growth and New Zealand trade balance.






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Friday August 23 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
11:00 AM
MX
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0% -0.3% ® 0% 0.1%
11:00 AM
MX
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 -0.8% 1.2% -0.8% -0.7%
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM JUN 0% -0.2% ® -0.1% -0.2%
02:00 PM
US
Fed Chair Powell Speech
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales JUL 0.635M 0.728M ® 0.649M 0.656M
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM JUL -12.8% 20.9% ® -0.2% 1.5%
07:00 PM
GB
BoE Gov Carney Speech
US
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Saturday August 24 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
04:25 PM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
Monday August 26 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence AUG 102.5 98.3 97
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization AUG 76.6% 76.2% 76%
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate AUG 94.3 95.8 ® 95.1 95.1
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL 2.1% 1.8% ® 1.2% 0.8%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index JUL -0.36 0.03 ® 0.11
12:30 PM
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM JUL -0.4% 0.8% ® 0% 0.3%
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG 2.7 -6.3 -3.0 -3
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence AUG 92.5 95.9 96.3
G7
G7 Summit
Tuesday August 27 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
02:50 AM
AU
RBA Debelle Speech
06:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 -0.1% 0.4% -0.1% -0.1%
06:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4%
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence AUG 102 101 101 100
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence AUG 102 102 102 100
08:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals JUL 43.342K 42.775K ® 42.8K 42.8K
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims JUL 10.8K 6.1K 9.8K
11:00 AM
MX
Balance of Trade JUL $-1.117B $2.561B $0.46B $0.8B
11:00 AM
MX
Unemployment Rate JUL 3.7% 3.6% 3.7%
12:00 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JUN 0.3% 0.6% 0.4%
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUN 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2%
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/23 -11.1M -3.5M
Wednesday August 28 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ Q2 -3.8% -2.2% ® -1% -0.7%
06:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence SEP 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7
08:00 AM
IT
Business Confidence AUG 99.7 100.1 99.8 98
08:00 AM
IT
Consumer Confidence AUG 111.9 113.3 ® 109.6 110.5
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change AUG/23 -10.027M -2.7M ® -2.112M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/23 -2.09M 0.31M ® -0.388M
04:20 PM
US
Fed Barkin Speech
06:30 PM
MX
Banxico Inflation Report
09:00 PM
KR
Business Confidence AUG 68 73 71
09:30 PM
US
Fed Daly Speech
Thursday August 29 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
JP
BoJ Suzuki Speech
04:00 AM
AU
HIA New Home Sales MoM JUL -7.2% -12.1% 6%
05:00 AM
JP
Consumer Confidence AUG 37.1 37.8 37.6
06:00 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Harmonised JUL 3% 3.1% 3.1%
06:45 AM
FR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
07:00 AM
TR
Balance of Trade JUL $-3.19B $-3.18B $-1.2B
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Change AUG 4K 1K 4K 4K
07:55 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate AUG 5% 5% 5% 5%
09:00 AM
EA
Business Confidence AUG 0.11 -0.11 ® 0.08 -0.2
09:00 AM
EA
Consumer Confidence Final AUG -7.1 -6.6 -7.1 -7.1
09:00 AM
EA
Economic Sentiment AUG 103.1 102.7 102.3 102.1
10:45 AM
ES
Business Confidence AUG 1.4 -2.8 -3.2
12:00 PM
BR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 0.4% -0.1% ® 0.2% 0.2%
12:00 PM
BR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6%
12:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6%
12:30 PM
CA
Current Account Q2 C$-6.38B C$-16.63B ® C$-9.8B C$-11B
12:30 PM
US
Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q2 5.1% -4.1% ® 2.9%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2 2% 3.1% 2% 2.1%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q2 2.5% 0.8% 2.4% 2.5%
12:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv JUL $-72.34B $-74.16B $-74B $-72.0B
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims AUG/24 215K 211K ® 215K 204K
12:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv JUL 0.2% 0% 0.3%
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales MoM JUL -2.5% 2.8% 0% -0.8%
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY JUL -0.3% 1.6% 2%
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
03:00 PM
MX
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
04:20 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
11:01 PM
GB
Gfk Consumer Confidence AUG -14 -11 -12 -12
11:30 PM
JP
Unemployment Rate JUL 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4%
11:50 PM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Prel JUL 1.3% -3.3% 0.3% 1.5%
11:50 PM
JP
Retail Sales YoY JUL -2% 0.5% -0.8% 0.6%
Friday August 30 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:00 AM
KR
Interest Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.50%
01:30 AM
AU
Building Permits MoM JUL -9.7% -0.8% ® 0% 0.8%
05:00 AM
JP
Housing Starts YoY JUL -4.1% 0.3% -5.4% 1%
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales MoM JUL -2.2% 3.0% ® -1% -1.4%
06:00 AM
DE
Retail Sales YoY JUL 4.4% -1.6% 1.9%
06:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM AUG 0% 0.3% 0.1% -0.4%
06:00 AM
GB
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY AUG 0.6% 0.3% 1%
06:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG 1.1% 1.1% 1% 1.2%
08:00 AM
IT
Unemployment Rate JUL 9.9% 9.8% ® 9.6% 9.9%
08:30 AM
GB
BoE Consumer Credit JUL £0.897B £1.075B ® £1B £1.1B
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Approvals JUL 67.31K 66.51K ® 66.167K 66.8K
08:30 AM
GB
Mortgage Lending JUL £4.61B £3.79B ® £3.7B £3.8B
09:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash AUG 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Flash AUG 1% 1% 1% 1.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Unemployment Rate JUL 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
09:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Prel AUG 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%
10:00 AM
IT
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0% 0.1% 0% 0%
10:00 AM
IT
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 -0.1% -0.1% 0% 0%
12:00 PM
BR
Unemployment Rate JUL 11.8% 12% 11.9% 11.9%
12:00 PM
IN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 5% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6%
12:00 PM
ZA
Balance of Trade JUL ZAR-2.88B ZAR5.54B ® ZAR2.7B ZAR -1.6B
12:30 PM
CA
GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2 3.7% 0.5% ® 3% 2.3%
12:30 PM
CA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 0.9% 0.1% 0.4%
12:30 PM
CA
GDP MoM JUN 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
12:30 PM
US
Personal Income MoM JUL 0.1% 0.5% ® 0.3% 0.3%
12:30 PM
US
Personal Spending MoM JUL 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
12:30 PM
US
PCE Price Index MoM JUL 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
12:30 PM
US
PCE Price Index YoY JUL 1.4% 1.3% ® 1.5%
01:45 PM
US
Chicago PMI AUG 50.4 44.4 47.5 49
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final AUG 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Final AUG 79.9 90.5 82.3 82.3
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final AUG 89.8 98.4 92.1 92.1
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Final AUG 105.3 110.7 107.4 107.4
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Final AUG 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7%
Saturday August 31 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.5 49.7 49.7 49.5
01:00 AM
CN
NBS Non Manufacturing PMI AUG 53.8 53.7 53.6 52.5
Sunday September 01 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
12:00 AM
KR
Balance of Trade AUG $1.72B $2.44B $6.5B
12:00 AM
KR
Exports YoY AUG -13.6% -11% -13.6% -11.5%
10:30 PM
AU
AIG Manufacturing Index AUG 53.1 51.3 51.6
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 50.9 51.6 51.3
Monday September 02 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 49.3 49.4 49.5 49.5
12:30 AM
KR
Markit Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.0 47.3 47.7
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Manufacturing PMI AUG 50.4 49.9 49.8 49.8
04:00 AM
ID
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 3.49% 3.32% 3.54% 3.58%
05:00 AM
IN
Markit Manufacturing PMI AUG 51.4 52.5 52.2 51.9
06:00 AM
RU
Markit Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.1 49.3 49.7
06:45 AM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 1.2% 1.6% ® -0.6%
07:00 AM
TR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 -1.5% -2.4% ® -2% -2.4%
07:15 AM
ES
Markit Manufacturing PMI AUG 48.8 48.2 48.5 48.9
07:45 AM
IT
Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI AUG 48.7 48.5 48.5 49.2
07:50 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 51.1 49.7 51 51.0
07:55 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 43.5 43.2 43.6 43.6
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 47 46.5 47 47.0
08:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI AUG 47.4 48 48.4 47.6
09:15 AM
EA
ECB Lautenschläger Speech
11:00 AM
MX
Business Confidence AUG 49.7 49.4 ® 49
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
01:45 PM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
06:00 PM
BR
Balance of Trade AUG $3.28B $2.29B $3.2B $2.9B
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 1% -0.4% 1.1%
11:00 PM
KR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 2% 1.7% 2.1%
11:00 PM
KR
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Tuesday September 03 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
Retail Sales MoM JUL -0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
04:30 AM
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision 1% 1% 1% 1%
07:00 AM
ES
Unemployment Change AUG 54.4K -4.3K 51K
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 15.01% 16.65% 15.51% 15.7%
08:30 AM
GB
Construction PMI AUG 45.0 45.3 45.9 45.9
08:45 AM
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI AUG 45.7 52.1 50
09:30 AM
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 3.1% -3.1% ® 2.4% 2.3%
09:30 AM
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 0.9% 0% 0.8% 0.6%
12:00 PM
BR
Industrial Production MoM JUL -0.3% -0.7% ® 0.3% 0.4%
01:30 PM
CA
Markit Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.1 50.2 51
01:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Final AUG 50.3 50.4 49.9 49.9
02:00 PM
US
Construction Spending MoM JUL 0.1% -0.7% 0.3% 0.5%
02:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment AUG 47.4 51.7 51.5
02:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders AUG 47.2 50.8 50.6
02:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI AUG 49.1 51.2 51.1 50.7
02:00 PM
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices AUG 46.0 45.1 45.8 46
04:20 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
09:00 PM
US
Fed Rosengren Speech
10:30 PM
AU
AIG Services Index AUG 51.4 43.9 41
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Final AUG 49.1 52.3 49.2 49.2
Wednesday September 04 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Final AUG 53.3 51.8 53.4 53.4
12:50 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
01:30 AM
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 0.5% 0.5% ® 0.5% 0.5%
01:30 AM
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 1.4% 1.7% ® 1.4% 1.5%
01:30 AM
JP
BoJ Kataoka Speech
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin Services PMI AUG 52.1 51.6 52
07:15 AM
ES
Markit Services PMI AUG 54.3 52.9 53 52.5
07:45 AM
IT
Markit/ADACI Services PMI AUG 50.6 51.7 51.6 51.1
07:50 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Final AUG 53.4 52.6 53.3 53.3
07:55 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Final AUG 54.8 54.5 54.4 54.4
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Final AUG 53.5 53.2 53.4 53.4
08:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI AUG 50.6 51.4 51 51
09:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales MoM JUL -0.6% 1.2% ® -0.6% -0.4%
09:00 AM
EA
Retail Sales YoY JUL 2.2% 2.8% ® 2% 1.5%
11:00 AM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
12:30 PM
CA
Balance of Trade JUL C$-1.12B C$-0.06B ® C$-0.4B C$-0.1B
12:30 PM
US
Balance of Trade JUL $-54B $-55.5B ® $-53.5B $-53.4B
01:00 PM
BR
Markit Services PMI AUG 51.4 52.2 52.5
01:30 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
02:00 PM
EA
ECB Mersch Speech
02:00 PM
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism SEP 50.8 55.1 53.9
04:30 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
04:30 PM
US
Fed Bowman Speech
04:30 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
05:00 PM
US
Fed Kashkari Speech
07:15 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/30 0.401M -11.1M
Thursday September 05 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
Balance of Trade JUL A$7.268B A$7.977B ® A$7.4B A$7.7B
06:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders MoM JUL -2.7% 2.7% ® -1.5% -1.2%
07:00 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
07:30 AM
DE
Construction PMI AUG 46.3 49.5 49.9
10:30 AM
ES
Consumer Confidence AUG 86 97 98.2
11:00 AM
MX
Consumer Confidence AUG 43.4 43.1 103
12:15 PM
US
ADP Employment Change AUG 195K 142K ® 149K 145K
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims AUG/31 217K 216K ® 215K 219K
12:30 PM
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final Q2 2.3% 3.5% 2.2% 2.3%
12:30 PM
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q2 2.6% 5.7% ® 2.5% 2.4%
01:00 PM
RU
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 4.3% 4.6% 4.4% 4.6%
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Final AUG 50.7 52.6 50.9 50.9
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final AUG 50.7 53 51 50.9
02:00 PM
US
Factory Orders MoM JUL 1.4% 0.5% ® 1% 0.9%
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity AUG 61.5 53.1 53.3 52.9
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment AUG 53.1 56.2 55.9
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders AUG 60.3 54.1 53.8
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI AUG 56.4 53.7 54 53.4
02:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices AUG 58.2 56.5 56
02:30 PM
GB
BoE Tenreyro Speech
03:00 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change AUG/30 -4.771M -10.027M -2.488M
03:00 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/30 -2.396M -2.09M -1.523M
03:15 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
03:20 PM
US
Total Vehicle Sales AUG 16.9M 16.8M 16.9M
Friday September 06 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
06:00 AM
DE
Industrial Production MoM JUL -0.6% -1.1% ® 0.3% 0.5%
06:45 AM
FR
Balance of Trade JUL €-4.6B €-5.3B ® €-3.2B
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index MoM AUG 0.3% 0.4% ® 0.2% 0.4%
07:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index YoY AUG 1.8% 1.5% ® 3.4% 3.4%
08:00 AM
IT
Retail Sales MoM JUL -0.5% 1.9% 0.4% -1.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Employment Change QoQ Final Q2 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Employment Change YoY Final Q2 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1%
09:00 AM
EA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3rd Est Q2 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
09:00 AM
EA
GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est Q2 1.2% 1.3% ® 1.1% 1.1%
09:15 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 7% 7.25% 7% 7%
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 3.43% 3.22% 3.44% 3.4%
12:00 PM
RU
Monetary Policy Report
12:30 PM
CA
Employment Change AUG 81.1K -24.2K 15K 20K
12:30 PM
CA
Full Time Employment Chg AUG 23.8K -11.6K 13K
12:30 PM
CA
Part Time Employment Chg AUG 57.2K -12.6K 7K
12:30 PM
CA
Participation Rate AUG 65.8% 65.6% 65.7% 65.7%
12:30 PM
CA
Unemployment Rate AUG 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.70%
12:30 PM
US
Non Farm Payrolls AUG 130K 159K ® 158K 151K
12:30 PM
US
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%
01:00 PM
RU
Foreign Exchange Reserves AUG $529.1B $519.8B
02:00 PM
CA
Ivey PMI s.a AUG 60.6 54.2 53 53.9
04:30 PM
US
Fed Chair Powell Speech
Sunday September 08 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
04:00 AM
CN
Balance of Trade AUG $34.83B $44.58B ® $43B $40B
04:00 AM
CN
Exports YoY AUG -1% 3.3% 2%
04:00 AM
CN
Imports YoY AUG -5.6% -5.3% -6%
11:50 PM
JP
Current Account JUL ¥1999.9B ¥1211.2B ¥2083.2B ¥1980B
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2 1.3% 2.2% ® 1.3% 1.8%
11:50 PM
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 0.3% 0.5% ® 0.3% 0.4%
Monday September 09 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
Home Loans MoM JUL 5.0% -0.8% ® 0.5%
01:30 AM
AU
Investment Lending for Homes JUL 3.9% 1.9% ® 1.3%
06:00 AM
DE
Balance of Trade JUL €21.4B €16.6B ® €12.9B
08:00 AM
GB
BoE Vlieghe Speech
08:30 AM
GB
Balance of Trade JUL £-0.219B £-0.132B ® £-2.3B
08:30 AM
GB
Construction Output YoY JUL 0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
08:30 AM
GB
GDP 3-Month Avg JUL 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1%
08:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production MoM JUL 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Industrial Production YoY JUL -0.9% -0.6% -1.1% -0.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Manufacturing Production YoY JUL -0.6% -1.4% -1.1% -1.2%
11:00 AM
MX
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 3.16% 3.78% 3.2% 3.2%
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:20 PM
EA
ECB Hakkarainen Speech
01:00 PM
RU
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q2 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9%
Tuesday September 10 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
NAB Business Confidence AUG 1 4 3
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%
01:30 AM
CN
Inflation Rate MoM AUG 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
01:30 AM
CN
PPI YoY AUG -0.8% -0.3% -0.9% -1%
06:45 AM
FR
Industrial Production MoM JUL 0.3% -2.3% 0.5% 1.5%
08:00 AM
IT
Industrial Production MoM JUL -0.7% -0.3% ® -0.2% -0.4%
08:30 AM
GB
Claimant Count Change AUG 28.2K 19.8K ® 30K 16K
08:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings excl. Bonus JUL 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Average Earnings incl. Bonus JUL 4% 3.8% ® 3.7% 3.7%
08:30 AM
GB
Employment Change JUN 31K 115K 53K 85K
08:30 AM
GB
Unemployment Rate JUL 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%
12:15 PM
CA
Housing Starts AUG 226.6K 222.5K ® 215K 190K
02:00 PM
US
JOLTs Job Openings JUL 7.217M 7.248M ® 7.311M 7.2M
04:30 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change SEP/06 -7.2M 0.401M
11:00 PM
KR
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.1% 4% 4%
Wednesday September 11 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change SEP -1.7% 3.6% -2%
12:30 AM
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index SEP 98.2 100 98
11:00 AM
ZA
Business Confidence Q3 21 28 24
12:00 PM
BR
Retail Sales MoM JUL 1% 0.5% ® -0.1% 0.4%
12:30 PM
US
PPI MoM AUG 0.1% 0.2% 0% 0.2%
02:00 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM JUL 0.2% -0.1% ® 0.2% 0.2%
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change SEP/06 -6.912M -4.771M -2.686M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change SEP/06 -0.682M -2.396M -0.847M
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders MoM JUL -6.6% 13.9% -9.9% -4.4%
11:50 PM
JP
Machinery Orders YoY JUL 0.3% 12.5% -4.5% 5.1%
OP
OPEC Monthly Report
Thursday September 12 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
02:30 AM
SG
Unemployment Rate Final Q2 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
06:00 AM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Final AUG 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4%
06:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Final AUG 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
07:00 AM
CN
FDI (YTD) YoY AUG 6.9% 7.3% 6.5%
08:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM JUL -0.4% -1.4% ® -0.1% 0.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY JUL -2% -2.4% ® -1.3% -1.4%
11:00 AM
TR
TCMB Interest Rate Decision 16.5% 19.75% 17.25% 17.50%
11:45 AM
EA
Deposit Facility Rate -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5%
11:45 AM
EA
ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
11:45 AM
EA
Marginal Lending Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY JUL 4.3% 1.2% ® 2.3% 1.8%
12:00 PM
IN
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 3.21% 3.15% 3.3% 3%
12:00 PM
IN
Manufacturing Production YoY JUL 4.2% 0.2% ® 1%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM JUL -0.1% -0.1% 0% 0.2%
12:30 PM
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY JUL -0.4% -0.2% -0.1%
12:30 PM
EA
ECB Press Conference
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
12:30 PM
US
Core Inflation Rate MoM AUG 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Inflation Rate MoM AUG 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims SEP/07 204K 219K ® 215K 208K
05:00 PM
US
30-Year Bond Auction 2.270% 2.335%
05:30 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
06:00 PM
US
Monthly Budget Statement AUG $-200B $-120B $-195B $-200B
Friday September 13 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
04:30 AM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Final JUL 1.3% -3.3% 1.3% 1.3%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM AUG -0.8% -0.3%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY AUG -1.1% -0.1%
08:20 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
09:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade JUL €24.8B €20.3B ® €17.4B €16.8B
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM AUG 0.4% 0.8% ® 0.2% 0.4%
12:30 PM
US
Export Prices MoM AUG -0.6% 0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
12:30 PM
US
Export Prices YoY AUG -1.4% -0.9% -1.1%
12:30 PM
US
Import Prices MoM AUG -0.5% 0.1% ® -0.4% -0.3%
12:30 PM
US
Import Prices YoY AUG -2% -1.9% ® -1.7%
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM AUG 0% 1% 0.1% 0.2%
01:15 PM
IN
Balance of Trade AUG $-13.45B $-13.43B $-13.60B $-13.2B
02:00 PM
US
Business Inventories MoM JUL 0.4% 0% 0.3% 0.2%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel SEP 2.3% 2.6% 2.6%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel SEP 82.4 79.9 82 81.5
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP 92.0 89.8 90.9 92
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel SEP 106.9 105.3 107 105.9
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel SEP 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Monday September 16 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
02:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY AUG 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8%
02:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY AUG 4.4% 4.8% 5.2% 5%
02:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY AUG 7.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.9%
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade AUG $0.085B $-0.064B ® $0.19B $0.1B
06:45 AM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate JUN 13% 12.8% 13.2%
08:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Final AUG 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:00 PM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
12:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index SEP 2.00 4.8 4 4.2
Tuesday September 17 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY AUG 8.8% 9.7% 9%
09:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index SEP -22.4 -43.6 -32.2 -38
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index SEP -22.5 -44.1 -37 -42
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production MoM AUG 0.6% -0.1% ® 0.2% 0.3%
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production YoY AUG 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
02:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index SEP 68 67 ® 66 65
02:30 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
05:10 PM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
08:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment JUL $11B $-7.7B
08:00 PM
US
Net Long-term TIC Flows JUL $84.3B $100.6B ®
08:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows JUL $43.8B $21B ® $9B
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change SEP/13 0.592M -7.2M
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade AUG ¥-136.3B ¥-250.7B ® ¥-355.9B ¥-430B
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY AUG -8.2% -1.5% ® -10.9%
Wednesday September 18 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 4.3% 4% 4.2% 4.2%
08:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%
08:30 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM AUG 0.4% 0% 0.5% 0.6%
09:00 AM
EA
Construction Output YoY JUL 1.1% 1.6% ® 1% 1.5%
09:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final AUG 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM AUG 0.1% -0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final AUG 1% 1% 1% 1%
09:00 AM
IT
Balance of Trade JUL €7.631B €5.701B ® €4.71B €3.2B
10:50 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
11:00 AM
ZA
Retail Sales YoY JUL 2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 1.9% 2% 2% 1.9%
12:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG 1.9% 2% 2.2% 2%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM AUG -0.1% 0.5% -0.1% -0.1%
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits AUG 1.419M 1.317M ® 1.3M 1.296M
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM AUG 7.7% 6.9% ® -3%
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts AUG 1.364M 1.215M ® 1.25M 1.251M
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM AUG 12.3% -1.5% ® 4.5% 5.1%
01:00 PM
RU
Unemployment Rate AUG 4.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4%
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change SEP/13 1.058M -6.912M -2.496M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change SEP/13 0.781M -0.682M -0.538M
05:30 PM
DE
Bundesbank Balz Speech
06:00 PM
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision 2% 2.25% 2% 2%
06:30 PM
US
Fed Press Conference
08:00 PM
SA
Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.75% 2.5%
09:15 PM
BR
Interest Rate Decision 5.5% 6% 5.5% 5.50%
Thursday September 19 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
AU
Employment Change AUG 34.7K 36.4K ® 10K 20K
01:30 AM
AU
Full Time Employment Chg AUG -15.5K 32.0K ® 30K
01:30 AM
AU
Part Time Employment Chg AUG 50.2K 4.4K ® -10K
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Bulletin
01:30 AM
AU
Unemployment Rate AUG 5.3% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%
02:50 AM
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
07:20 AM
ID
Interest Rate Decision 5.25% 5.5% 5.25% 5.25%
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales MoM AUG -0.2% 0.4% ® 0% -0.2%
08:30 AM
GB
Retail Sales YoY AUG 2.7% 3.4% ® 2.9% 2.5%
10:00 AM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
11:00 AM
TR
MPC Meeting Summary
11:00 AM
GB
BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
11:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Cut 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
11:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Hike 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
11:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
11:00 AM
GB
BoE Quantitative Easing £435B £435B £435B £435B
11:00 AM
GB
MPC Meeting Minutes
12:30 PM
CA
ADP Employment Change AUG 49.3K 30.2K ® -30.6K 65K
12:30 PM
US
Current Account Q2 $-128.2B $-136.2B ® $-127.8B $-123B
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims SEP/14 208K 206K ® 213K 209K
12:30 PM
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index SEP 12.0 16.8 11 10
01:00 PM
ZA
Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.50%
01:50 PM
BR
Business Confidence SEP 59.4 59.4 60
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales AUG 5.49M 5.42M 5.37M 5.38M
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM JUL 1.3% 2.5% -0.4% -0.8%
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 -0.3% 0.0% ® -0.1%
07:00 PM
AR
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 0.6% -5.8% -5.7% -3%
07:00 PM
AR
Unemployment Rate Q2 10.6% 10.1% 10.2%
11:30 PM
JP
Inflation Rate YoY AUG 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8%
11:30 PM
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY AUG 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
Friday September 20 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 1Y 4.2% 4.25% 4.15%
01:30 AM
CN
Loan Prime Rate 5Y 4.85% 4.85%
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM AUG -0.5% 0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence SEP 55.8 58.3 57
11:00 AM
GB
BoE Quarterly Bulletin
12:15 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM JUL 0.4% -0.1% ® 0.6% 0.4%
02:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash SEP -6.5 -7.1 -7 -7.8
03:20 PM
US
Fed Rosengren Speech
Sunday September 22 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 49.4 50.9 49.4 52
11:00 PM
AU
CommBank Services PMI Flash SEP 52.5 49.1 52.5 49.7
Monday September 23 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 50.3 51.1 50.3 51.5
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 51.6 53.4 51.6 52.9
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 41.4 43.5 41.4 44.1
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 52.5 54.8 52.5 54.5
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 45.6 47 45.6 47.5
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 52.0 53.5 53.3 53.4
08:20 AM
ES
Balance of Trade JUL €-2.49B €-1.53B €-2.9B
11:30 AM
BR
BCB Focus Market Readout
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index AUG 0.10 -0.41 ® -0.35 -0.06
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash SEP 51 50.7 51 51.2
01:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 51.0 50.3 51 50.1
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash SEP 50.9 50.7 51.3 51.5
01:50 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
03:00 PM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
05:00 PM
EA
ECB Lane Speech
05:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Buch Speech
05:00 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
06:30 PM
US
Fed Daly Speech
Tuesday September 24 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash SEP 48.9 49.3 49
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash SEP 52.8 53.3 52.7
05:35 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence SEP 102 103 ® 102 101
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence SEP 98.8 102.5 101.9
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization SEP 76.3% 76.6% 76%
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate SEP 94.6 94.3 94.4 94.4
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders SEP -28 -13 -18 -20
10:05 AM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM JUL 0.1% 0.4% ® 0.3% 0.2%
01:00 PM
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY JUL 2% 2.2% ® 2.2% 2%
02:30 PM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change SEP/20 1.4M 0.592M
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday September 25 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
01:30 AM
JP
BoJ Masai Speech
06:45 AM
FR
Consumer Confidence SEP 104 103 ® 102 101
07:00 AM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
08:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals AUG 42.576K 43.303K ® 44.0K
10:00 AM
FR
Unemployment Benefit Claims AUG -20.1K 10.8K -4K
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades SEP -16 -49 -25 -32
11:00 AM
MX
Unemployment Rate AUG 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
12:00 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
02:00 PM
EA
ECB Cœuré Speech
02:00 PM
US
Fed Brainard Testimony
02:00 PM
US
Fed George Testimony
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales AUG 0.713M 0.666M ® 0.66M 0.667M
02:00 PM
US
New Home Sales MoM AUG 7.1% -8.6% ® 3.5% 5.1%
02:30 PM
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change SEP/20 2.412M 1.058M -0.249M
02:30 PM
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change SEP/20 0.519M 0.781M 0.296M
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence SEP 96.9 92.5 90.0 91.9
11:00 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
EA
ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
Thursday September 26 2019 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
06:00 AM
DE
GfK Consumer Confidence OCT 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.8
06:35 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
08:00 AM
EA
ECB Economic Bulletin
12:30 PM
US
Corporate Profits QoQ Final Q2 3.7% -4.1% 5.1%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 2% 3.1% 2% 2%
12:30 PM
US
GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q2 2.6% 0.8% 2.4% 2.5%
12:30 PM
US
Goods Trade Balance Adv AUG $-72.83B $-72.46B $-77.327B $-73.4B
12:30 PM
US
Initial Jobless Claims SEP/21 213K 210K ® 212K 215K
12:30 PM
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv AUG 0.4% 0.1% ® 0.3% 0.3%
01:30 PM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
01:30 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
02:00 PM
US
Fed Bullard Speech
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales MoM AUG 1.6% -2.5% 0.9% 1.1%
02:00 PM
US
Pending Home Sales YoY AUG 2.5% -0.3% -1.9% -1.2%
03:45 PM
US
Fed Clarida Speech
03:45 PM
US
Fed Daly Speech
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
06:00 PM
MX
Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 8% 7.75% 7.75%
06:00 PM
US
Fed George Speech
06:00 PM
US
Fed Kashkari Speech
11:01 PM
GB
Gfk Consumer Confidence SEP -12 -14 -14 -14
EA
ECB General Council Meeting



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Trading Economics provides its users with a near real-time economic calendar updated 24 hours a day. Actual values are based on official sources, not third party data providers. Previous values are available before an economic indicator is reported and marked as revised (*) accordingly. Survey consensus figures are provided displaying the average forecast among a representative group of economists. We also provide forecasts which are driven by our analysts’ expectations and technically projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

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